N.D. aces economic stress test

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North Dakota is the least economically stressed state in the country, according to The Associated Press’ monthly analysis of economic conditions in more than 3,100 U.S. counties.

The AP’s Economic Stress Index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on a county’s unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. A higher score indicates more economic stress. Under a rough rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11.

The average score for North Dakota’s 53 counties in November was 4.3, much lower than the national average of 10.2. The worst average reading during the recession was 10.3 last March.

The AP also released its list of the top 20 counties on both ends of the economic stress spectrum. Counties had to have a population of 25,000 or more to be considered.

At 4.25, Grand Forks County is ninth on the least economically stressed counties list. Polk County (Minn.) was No. 17 at 4.88. Also making the list were Clay County (Minn.) No. 14 with a score of 4.63 and Cass County (N.D.) No. 20 at 4.93.

The scores for the area counties were low because foreclosures and bankruptcies have had more of an impact on urban areas that saw housing booms, including the Twin Cities, experts say.

Jack Geller, director of the U.S. Economic Development Administration Center in Crookston, Minn., attributes Polk County’s low score, as well as Clay County’s, to being associated with Red River Valley agriculture and its reliance on grain and sugar beet crops.

“As a state, Minnesota is not in very good shape right now … a lot of North Dakota envy,” Geller said. “The dairy industry has been a rollercoaster, but Polk County really doesn’t have much of a livestock industry and has seen some really good economic times, good crops and good prices.”

Geller said when it comes to unemployment, “there wasn’t a lot of slack in the chain” in the western tier of Minnesota. He said Polk County hasn’t experienced the sizeable layoffs that occur with Arctic Cat or Polaris in Pennington and Roseau counties farther northeast Minnesota.

Economists generally expect the national economy to improve gradually in 2010 but think a full recovery from the Great Recession will take years.

Riley County in Kansas topped the least-stressed county list with a score of 3.25.

North Dakota was followed on the least-stressed states by Nebraska (5.3), South Dakota (5.46), Vermont (6.73) and Montana (7.18).

Nevada, with the nation’s highest bankruptcy and foreclosure rates and third-highest unemployment rate, was the most economically troubled state in November, according to the index, with a score of 20.18, followed by Michigan, Florida, California and Illinois.

James R. Johnson is a reporter at the Grand Forks (N.D.) Herald, which is owned by Forum Communications Co.

This story contains material from The Associated Press.

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