Flood chances: NWS predicts significant odds of flooding on James River

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Sun file photo / John M. Steiner The swollen James River is seen in southeast Jamestown during the 2009 floods in this May 4, 2009, file photo. The National Weather Service reported this week there are increased odds of high water in the James River basin this spring.

Talk about it

The National Weather Service has increased the odds of high water on the rivers of the James River basin in a new forecast issued Thursday.

The forecast now calls for an 81 percent chance of major flooding on the James River at Grace City. This is an increase from a 10 percent possibility listed in a Dec. 21 forecast. A flood stage of 15 feet is considered a major flood at Grace City.

Downstream, the NWS has increased the possibility of an 18-foot or higher flood stage at LaMoure from 2 percent to 22 percent.

On the Pipestem the flood outlook for major flooding, 13 feet or higher, was set at 3 percent. However, moderate flooding, 11 feet or higher, is forecast as a 70 percent possibility.

“The forecasts are based on the current snow amounts, expected normal precipitation and a normal spring melt,” said Sam Walker, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Bismarck. “This is a first in a series of outlooks from now until the spring melt.”

The NWS does not make forecasts for levels at either the Jamestown or Pipestem dams. That chore is left to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

“We’ll make the first full set of measurements of the drainage basin during the week of Feb. 7,” said Bob Martin, dam manager for the corps. “The corps in Omaha will send out their first set of projections after that.”

Those numbers, including projected releases from the dams, will be used by the city and county for flood preparation if necessary.

“I suppose it’s good information but we don’t know what it means until the corps does its work,” said Jerry Bergquist, Stutsman County emergency manager. “We need to keep in mind that the Jamestown and Pipestem dams were designed as flood-control structures. Holding back the water is what they’re designed to do.”

Bergquist said the forecasts issued by the NWS could also indicate a higher possibility of overland flooding or high water levels in sloughs flooding rural roads.

“We don’t know much about the potential of a river flood yet,” he said. “But there is also the pothole situation to be concerned with.”

Sun reporter Keith Norman can be reached at (701) 952-8452 or by e-mail at knorman@jamestownsun.com

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