More kids? Let’s hold applause

A recent report from the state Data Center in Fargo revealed a boomlet in the number of preschoolers in North Dakota’s oil patch. The numbers were surprising and encouraging in light of the west river country’s decades of depopulation. But the test will be whether the snapshot is the start of a trend, and whether a trend will evolve into sustained population growth, or at least stability. Given the region’s history, it might be wise to hold the applause.

According to Census figures, oil counties saw a 20 percent or more jump in the number of preschoolers in the past 10 years, a clear indication that young families have either stayed in or moved into the region. Eight counties and the patch’s largest city, Williston, counted strong increases in the number of children under 5 years old. The numbers are very good for cities and counties that have been bleeding young families for years.

The population change will affect the way public officials plan for schools, housing and public facilities. It can affect private investments in amenities geared toward young families. More kids and young families will demand good schools. They will not settle for the substandard, high-priced housing that plagues oil patch communities today.

And there’s the dilemma.

Consider that the other two places in the state that saw 20 percent or more jumps in the populations of children under 5 were Bismarck/Burleigh County and Fargo/Cass County. While it can be argued that oil patch activity had a slight effect in Bismarck, the capital city’s growth has not been dependent on the oil and natural gas boom. Fargo and Cass County have been growing steadily without an oil development factor. Both cities have job bases and economic engines that are diversified and vigorous. They do not rely on one economic driver. They have developed strategies for business flexibility and management agility that sustain an economy in good and not-so-good times. That is not a description of an energy boom, no matter how bright and hopeful the promise.

Therefore, investors and developers are cautious. They know that should the oil boom fade (a global decline in the price of crude?), most of the young families who followed the boom north will disappear like early season frost in the sunrise.

As North Dakotans have seen too many times, a one-horse economy — oil or agriculture — will stall when the horse sickens or dies. The preschooler numbers from the west are heartening, but to assume they are a permanent phenomenon would be foolhardy.

Tags: opinion, editorials, population