Which teams are for real?

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The NFL is full of flashes in the pan.

Houston looks like one of the most complete teams in the league. They have a good quarterback, one of the best running backs in the league and a decent line and wide receiving corps. The defense has also been solid for most of the season.

With a such a complete team, the Texans should be in the running for the Super Bowl. But you won’t find me picking Houston to win the big game.

New England may have exposed Houston’s weaknesses in a 41-14 victory on Monday night. And as of right now, it’s fair to say Houston has a few problems. Its secondary was picked apart by Tom Brady and when it comes to the playoffs, there’s a fairly easy recipe. You need a quarterback and a defense.

The Texans have shown they have both, but the defense has been in trouble lately. It gave up 37 points to Jacksonville three weeks ago and 31 to Detroit two weeks ago.

With Houston’s weekly lineup, it has staying power with the NFL’s elite. Other team’s do not, however.

Many people were excited over Detroit’s playoff run last year, but the Lions were a perfect example of a flash in the pan. You can’t expect continued success until it’s been proven.

The picks:

Cincinnati (7-6) at Philadelphia (4-9): The Bengals are in the midst of a playoff run, and they’ll continue to prove their worthy. Bengals 27, Eagles 23

Indianapolis (9-4) at Houston (11-2): A big test for the Texans with Andrew Luck coming to town. Texans 38, Colts 27

Denver (10-3) at Baltimore (9-4): Baltimore has been hanging on by a thread since Ray Lewis went down. Broncos 30, Ravens 20

Jacksonville (2-11) at Miami (5-8): More complete, the Dolphins should handle the Jaguars. Dolphins 20, Jaguars 17

Washington (7-6) at Cleveland (5-8): Whether or not RG3 plays this game shouldn’t matter. On a side note, With three games to go, Browns QB Brandon Weeden has thrown for 3,100 yards. Redskins 31, Browns 20

Minnesota (7-6) at St. Louis (6-6-1): Adrian Peterson could have enough to beat the Rams on his own. And he may have to. Vikings 21, Rams 17

Tampa Bay (6-7) at New Orleans (5-8): Drew Brees is having a remarkable season despite the Saints struggling. Saints 34, Bucs 24

N.Y. Giants (8-5) at Atlanta (11-2): The Giants got a wakeup call two weeks ago and they came out with a vengeance last week. They’ll do so again. Giants 32, Falcons 30

Green Bay (9-4) at Chicago (8-5): The Packers aren’t a good matchup for the Bears, regardless of where the game is played. Packers 31, Bears 17

Seattle (8-5) at Buffalo (5-8): The Seahawks defense is top notch right now. Seahawks 24, Bills 3

Carolina (4-9) at San Diego (5-8): The Chargers’ win over Pittsburgh last week may jumpstart a late season run. Chargers 28, Panthers 24

Detroit (4-9) at Arizona (4-9): The Cardinals might be the worst team in football. Lions 34, Cardinals 17

Kansas City (2-11) at Oakland (3-10): Oakland can’t be worse than Kansas City. Raiders 23, Chiefs 16

Pittsburgh (7-6) at Dallas (7-6): Dallas is on its way up, but the Cowboys’ will choke away their playoff chances. Steelers 24, Cowboys 21

San Francisco (9-3-1) at New England (10-3): The Patriots face another tough team, but its still at home. Patriots 23, 49ers 20

N.Y. Jets (6-7) at Tennessee (4-9): Another big ESPN matchup. Jets 13, Titans 10.

Last week: 8-7

Season: 109-69

Sun sports writer Chris Aarhus can be reached at (701) 952-8462 or by email at caarhus@jamestownsun.com

Tags: sports, nfl, football