Red River forecast lowered

FARGO — Residents in a tiny township were breathing easier after word that the National Weather Service was lowering its crest predictions of the Red River in the Fargo and Moorhead, Minn., area.

The latest estimate of a 37-foot crest by Saturday should keep up to 80 percent of the homes in low-lying Oakport Township out of danger, the township board chairman said Tuesday. Oakport is north of Moorhead.

Earlier projections had the Red cresting from 38 to 39 feet by Thursday or Friday.

“It’s a huge difference for us,” said Greg Anderson, Oakport Township chairman. “It’s still challenging, but this is great news from our side.”

Officials in the much larger cities of Fargo and Moorhead greeted the revised prediction with relief, too, while warning against overconfidence — especially with some rain in the forecast later in the week.

“It’s still a major flood,” Moorhead Mayor Mark Voxland said. “Even though it’s still down a little bit more, we’ve got to be careful.”

Both cities said they are prepared for the crest. They have dike protection to 43 feet, and largely withstood a nearly 41-foot crest last month.

Oakport, a township of about 550 homes, had more than 100 damaged in the first round of flooding. The weather service had originally warned residents that the second crest could be worse than the first, but those estimates have been revised downward on at least two occasions.

“The last week has been just the opposite of the last week before the first crest,” Anderson said. “The first time we had to crank it up more and more. The question was how much more you could bear.”

The weather service said the lower crest estimate is due primarily to decreasing soil frost, allowing for more water to be stored in the ground.

“There was a lot of local runoff that we thought would get into the river system,” said Dave Kellenbenz, weather service meteorologist in Grand Forks. “With the soils warming up, the water has been able to soak into the topsoil just enough.”

Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker said he believes the second crest will be closer to 36 feet.

“It’s good news for everyone who’s involved,” he said of the revised projections. “But we can’t forget there are some people who are still having a real, real challenge with the Sheyenne River.”

The Sheyenne is expected to crest at record levels along its route from Valley City to Lisbon to north of Fargo. The water should remain high for several days after cresting, Kellenbenz said.

“The main player right now is the Sheyenne,” Kellenbenz said. “They are in the flood fight of their lives in those areas.”

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