The corn market has been pulling horizontal since price retested the LME last fall. As price broadens, the market has been suggesting that price would again retest the pivot made at $3.52 by likely creating an inside swing. This retest is important not only to reset the chart structurally, but it also will bring validity to the convergence of the dimensions. Since last fall it has appeared that price would want to restore energy before making another higher low. Given the context of the corn market, this swing continues to suggest price will attempt a move back to the $3.60 area on the continuous contract. If price finds buyers there, the next most likely swing is higher as price again would suggest a structural failure has occurred, similar to what we witnessed last year.
Since the beginning of 2020, the soybean market has been met with sellers near $9.60. Price failed to make new highs and this has led to the large and deep correction that we have seen in soybeans. The risk has been large and the job of price remains to make new lows on both the continuous and deferred contracts. While it appears likely that new crop soybeans will make new lows, it appears unlikely to me that the continuous contract will be able to do so. If price cannot trade below $7.91 on the continuous contract swing, this would suggest a failure of price and in this context would suggest a potential move higher. Where price finds buyers is important to where price is likely headed this year. If buyers can be found at the LML near $8.50, the upside objectives of price are different than if price reaches what appears at this time to be the most likely reaction near $8.20 on the continuous contract. A move below the parallel suggests price is weak and that a rally is limited to the structure of the market.
**The information presented is the opinion of the writer. There is an inherent risk of loss associated with trading futures and options contracts even when used for hedging purposes. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors.