So far, this has been a fall without any fall chill. Frost has been confined to a few spots in far western and northern North Dakota along with the usual suspects in the Minnesota North Woods. There have been no chilly days, either. This is a continuation of the past year, more or less. Last fall was warm and dry except for a chilly spell in October. The winter was mild and dry except for a 10-day stretch in early February. Spring was cool but dry, setting the plate for the summer drought. Now with this warm fall, one wonders about the equalizer.

Weather models suggest the remainder of October will be cooler, but still mostly warmer than average, with a strong potential for a few significant rains. Longer term, there are no strong signals about the winter, but a return to near-average or even colder than average temperatures seems likely, but not certain. A warm year is not always followed by a cold one.

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